Major changes in migration in top 38 rich countries, study finds

International migration for employment fell by 21 percent in 2024.

The Paris-based OECD said that international migration for employment fell by 21 percent (more than a fifth) in 2024, due to the impact of a slowdown in labor markets in rich countries, strict visa policies and geopolitical uncertainty. According to new data from the organization of 38 advanced and emerging economies, migration for permanent work fell to about 934,000 between 2023 and 2024 - halting a continuous post-Covid rise.

Jean-Christophe Dumont, head of the OECD's international migration department, said the trend of declining labor migration was clear as the global economic situation was "less favorable". He cited the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s (IMF) downgrade of its 2025 global growth forecast from 0.5 percent to 2.8 percent as a key factor. In particular, US President Donald Trump's trade war has significantly disrupted global trade and labor markets.

Strict visa policies in countries such as the UK and Australia have played the most direct role in reducing immigration. In the UK, net migration fell by more than 40 percent in 2024. Even in European Union countries that have not changed their visa framework, labor-based immigration has fallen below its pre-COVID-19 level. Dumont said that the 5.1 million asylum seekers from Ukraine have filled labor shortages in many European countries, reducing demand for foreign workers.

Educational immigration has also fallen. The number of international students in OECD member countries fell by 13 percent between 2023 and 2024. This trend has been exacerbated by strict visa policies in the US, UK, Canada and Australia - particularly due to "anti-fraud" and housing shortages. However, humanitarian migration has increased significantly. All this information was revealed in a special report published on Monday (December 1) by Al Jazeera.

Asylum applications in the United States have risen sharply since the end of the Biden administration, and the UK has seen a sharp increase in illegal immigration from European countries in small boats in recent months. As a result, while labor and education-based migration have declined, total permanent migration fell by just 4 percent in 2024.
The number of new arrivals in OECD countries in 2024 stood at 6.2 million - 15 percent more than before the pandemic.

A record 6.5 million people settled permanently in OECD countries in 2023. Non-refugee migration reached its highest level in a third of its member countries, including Canada, France and Japan. 1.2 million legal permanent migrants arrived in the United States in 2023, and Trump made reducing immigration a key issue in his 2024 election campaign. However, Goldman Sachs research shows that migrants play a major role in increasing employment in Canada, Sweden, Germany, New Zealand and the UK.

Looking ahead, Dumont said that while migration flows may slow slightly in 2025, they will remain historically high. The employment rate of foreign workers in the UK is “76 percent,” slightly higher than that of locals. She says the high-skill visa program and the reluctance of local workers in low-skill sectors are keeping the rate high.

“The world needs to rethink the root causes of local labor shortages in sectors where migrants work the most – agriculture, construction, and health,” said Fabiola Mieres, an ILO migration expert. She believes that despite the downturn, immigration politics will continue to be a source of tension in Europe and the United States.