Food prices to soar globally until 2028

Along with the Iran war, a ‘Super’ El Niño could deliver a second shock to global food supplies and prices this year. Its effects could last until 2028, economists have warned. Super El Niño is an extreme climatic phase of abnormally high temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

Citing forecasts from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Guardian reported that the 2026-27 El Niño cycle could increase the risk of floods and droughts around the world, damaging crop production and food supplies. It is being called a ‘Super’ or ‘Godzilla’ El Niño due to the potentially dire situation.

Analysts at US multinational investment bank Goldman Sachs said that El Niño has already started to affect crops. The monsoon season in India has become dry. Some regions have received only 25 percent of the normal rainfall. Some parts of the central region of the country have recorded 50 percent rainfall. Which could disrupt the supply of wheat, rice and sugarcane.

According to Goldman Sachs, food prices could rise by up to 15.8 percent. This will have an indirect impact worldwide. However, the link between climate change and costs will take some time to become apparent. The final situation could be revealed between July and December 2028.

According to the Italian bank UniCredit, a ‘super’ El Niño could hit global agricultural production by up to 14.3 percent. This is equivalent to a production loss of about $342 billion.

The bank said that the prices of major food commodities could increase by 10 to 50 percent. The most vulnerable crops, such as rice, palm oil, sugar and coffee, could increase by 50 to 100 percent or more. This essentially brings ‘climateflation’ or climate-induced inflation to the fore.

Past examples have shown that El Niño has repeatedly severely disrupted crop production and the food supply system. A devastating El Niño more than a century ago caused droughts in China, southern Africa, Brazil, Egypt, and India. Colonial rule exacerbated the situation, leading to famines. In India alone, more than six million people died between 1876 and 1878.