How accurate were Opta’s predictions in the World Cup?

Before the start of the World Cup, Opta supercomputer made numerous predictions, from the title chances, group stage calculations, knockout equations to match results. The tournament is now in the semi-finals. Looking back so far, it can be seen that most of the big predictions have come true. However, a few surprising results have also overturned the supercomputer's calculations.

Since the start of the 2026 World Cup, statistical analysis company Opta Supercomputer has been making continuous predictions about match results, teams that have advanced to the knockout stage and title chances. When those predictions are compared with the results of the tournament from the group stage to the quarter-finals, it has been seen that most of the important predictions have come true. However, this statistical model could not catch a few major events.

Before the start of the World Cup, Opta identified Spain, France, Argentina and England as one of the main contenders for the title. As the tournament progressed, France became the biggest favorite, but all four teams eventually made it to the semi-finals. As a result, the Opta analysis proved to be largely correct in determining the main contenders for the title.

The supercomputer also had great success in the knockout stage. Opta correctly predicted the winner of four of the four quarter-final matches. France defeated Morocco, Spain eliminated Belgium, England won against Norway and Argentina defeated Switzerland. The results of all four matches were correctly predicted in advance by the Opta model.

However, not all the predictions came true. Before the World Cup, Opta had shown the possibility of Brazil, Germany and the Netherlands to go far. But Germany and the Netherlands were eliminated earlier than expected. Brazil was also eliminated in the last 16.

On the other hand, Norway was one of the biggest surprises of the tournament. The team with relatively low chances defeated Brazil in the last 16 and advanced to the quarter-finals. This result did not fully match the Opta predictions.

According to analysts, the Opta supercomputer does not announce the final result of any match; Rather, it analyzes millions of possible scenarios to determine the probability of winning. So there is always a chance of an accident. Nevertheless, the performance of the Opta supercomputer in the 2026 World Cup can be called quite successful so far, as it was able to accurately predict the results of the four semi-final teams and all the quarter-final matches.