Trump unlikely to win Nobel Peace Prize

The Nobel Committee will announce the winner of the Peace Prize in Oslo, the capital of Norway, at 11 am on Friday (3 pm Bangladesh time), which is attracting great interest and speculation.

However, the global context is quite gloomy this time. According to the Global Conflict Database of Uppsala University in Sweden, the world will have the highest number of state-related armed conflicts in 2024 since 1946.

The news agency AFP reported this in a report on Tuesday (October 8).

Donald Trump has been claiming that he has "resolved eight conflicts" - and therefore deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. But according to experts, at least this year he is not the committee's choice.

"No, not Trump this year," said Professor Peter Wallenstein, an expert on international relations in Sweden. “Maybe next year will show that his various initiatives, especially the Gaza crisis, will become clearer.”

Many experts consider Trump’s claim to be an “ambassador of peace” to be exaggerated. According to them, his “America First” policy is contrary to the core spirit of the Nobel Prize—international cooperation, fraternity of nations, and disarmament.

“Some of Trump’s actions are clearly against Nobel’s ideals,” said Nina Greger, head of the Oslo Peace Research Institute. “He has withdrawn the United States from international organizations and multilateral agreements, started trade wars with both allies and adversaries, threatened to seize Greenland from Denmark, deployed the National Guard across the country, and interfered with academic freedom at universities and freedom of expression.”

Nobel Committee Chairman Jørgen Wottne Fridnes said, “We consider the candidate’s overall performance. But what I value most is what he has actually achieved for peace.’

Whose names are ahead?

A total of 338 individuals and organizations have been nominated for the Peace Prize this year. The list is kept secret for 50 years. The right to propose is held by members of parliament, cabinet members, previous winners, professors at certain universities and committee members.

The 2024 prize went to Nihon Hidankyo, an organization of Japanese atomic bomb survivors who play an active role in the global movement for nuclear disarmament.

While no specific candidate is clearly considered the frontrunner this year, a few names have been particularly discussed—such as Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, which are risking their lives to help hungry and helpless people amid war and famine; Yulia Navalny, wife of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny; and the European election monitoring organization, the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR).

“In recent years, the Nobel Committee has returned to classic peace concepts such as human rights, democracy, press freedom and women’s rights, rather than big political decisions,” said Halvard Leira, director of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs.

“I think this year, it is likely that a non-controversial and relatively neutral candidate will win the prize,” he said.

This year, the Nobel Committee could award the prize to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, or to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) or the Palestinian Refugee Agency (UNRWA), to send a message of global solidarity.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) or the International Criminal Court, or organizations working for press freedom such as the Committee to Protect Journalists or Reporters Without Borders, could also be considered for the prize.

However, history shows that the Nobel Committee has often surprised everyone by announcing a completely unexpected candidate as the winner.

So, until Friday's announcement, the question remains—who will receive the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize?