Why Israel sees Turkey as more dangerous than Iran

Turkey is one of the most influential members of the Western military alliance NATO. The country enjoys warm relations with the United States and European countries. However, Israel, a close ally of the United States, considers the country led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan a threat. Not only that, but Ankara is more concerned about Iran in the Middle East than the Zionist territory.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who will run as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's main rival in the upcoming general election, recently said that Turkey, with Qatar's support, is emerging as Israel's main strategic threat, replacing Iran. His words are not just a general warning about another enemy. Rather, his comments reflect a deeper concern: Israel may be entering an era of long-term conflict with a powerful and prosperous adversary, which also has a historical significance.

For decades, Israel’s security concerns have centered on Iran and its Shiite axis—which includes Iran’s nuclear program, Hezbollah’s missile arsenal, and its undeclared wars in Syria and Lebanon. But Bennett’s words hint at a new axis: Turkey—a NATO member with a thriving economy and global ambitions. Ankara is creating a Sunni axis that could be even more powerful than Iran’s Shiite axis.

Turkish expert on international politics Meliha Altunisik says Erdogan is a shrewd actor who understands how to turn ideology into power. Unlike Iran, Turkey combines ideology with pragmatism, which makes the country both credible and unpredictable.

The strategy of the new axis

For Israeli strategists, the threat is not just Turkey, but also Turkey and Qatar. The two countries have been accused of “nurturing the Muslim Brotherhood monster” and of spreading the same ideological threat as Iran’s support for the Shiites. Their influence in Syria and Gaza is growing, and there are even rumors of efforts to distance Saudi Arabia from the process of normalizing relations with Israel. The worst-case scenario could be: a new enemy axis consisting of Turkey, Qatar, and their nuclear-armed ally Pakistan.

As Steven Cook, an expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, has written, Israel has long tailored its defense strategy to Iran’s capabilities. But if Turkey succeeds in getting Saudi Arabia on its side or strengthens its ties with Pakistan, the strategic map will change overnight. Then it will not just be a question of missiles from Iran—it will be a Sunni world with nuclear capabilities.

Economic War

The conflict between Israel and Turkey is not just ideological or military, but also economic. In May 2024, Turkey imposed a full embargo, suspending all trade with Israel, including imports and exports. Trade was previously restricted on 54 product groups, including cement, aluminum and fertilizer. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said that Erdogan was “sacrificing his country’s economic interests to support Hamas.”

For Israel, the boycott is not just a trade embargo, but a warning that Turkey is not afraid to use economic power. Turkey is a G20 country and has economic influence in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Trade analyst Sunny Mann said that this is the first time Turkey has imposed comprehensive sanctions against another country for purely political reasons. It indicates the depth of Turkey’s economic power.

Historical resonance

There is also a historical context to this rivalry. Palestine was under Ottoman rule until 1917. So there is a kind of familiarity and responsibility here. Erdogan often uses Ottoman symbols in his speeches and portrays Turkey as the protector of Muslim lands.

Dr. Asa Ophir of Ariel University says that there is a historical memory at work here. For many in Turkey, the Palestinian issue is not just a matter of solidarity; it is a matter of heritage.

This historical significance is fueling Israeli fears. While Iran’s Shiite ideology is foreign to most Arabs, Turkey can claim cultural and historical legitimacy in the region. Turkey’s Ottoman heritage adds credibility to Erdogan’s rhetoric, which, like Iran, is not short of revolutionary slogans.

Warning or provocation

The question is, is this Israeli warning a genuine assessment or a provocation? Some Israeli scholars see it as a preparation for a new phase of hostilities, which could be used to preempt Turkish expansionism. Others believe that exaggerating Turkey’s threat could push the country into a hostile alliance.

Altunisik writes that seeing Turkey as the “new Iran” is a strategic miscalculation. It could precipitate conflict rather than control the situation.

Jonathan Ghariani of the Moshe Dayan Center argues that Israeli-Turkish relations have always oscillated between cooperation and conflict. The post-October 7 era has heightened tensions, but it is not unprecedented. The 1990s saw military cooperation; today it is an economic war. The situation is changing, but the stakes are much higher.

Fear of a credible rival

Ultimately, Israel’s view of Turkey as the “next Iran” is not simply a fear of being cornered, but