Saudi Arabia under Pakistan’s ’nuclear umbrella’,

the entire Middle East's calculations will change
Saudi Arabia under Pakistan's 'nuclear umbrella'. Pakistan may have 120 nuclear weapons, including Shaheen-2, which is more than India, Israel and North Korea.

A week after Israel's attack on Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have signed a mutual defense agreement. According to analysts, the agreement effectively brings the Gulf monarchy Saudi Arabia under Islamabad's 'nuclear umbrella'. At the same time, it is a clear message to the United States - as Qatar failed to prevent Israeli missiles, Riyadh is now walking a new path to ensure alternative security.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif signed the agreement in Riyadh on Wednesday (September 17). The joint statement said, “An attack against either country will be considered an attack against both.”

The agreement aims to “enhance defense cooperation between the two countries and strengthen mutual deterrence against any aggression.” It highlights the nearly eight-decade-old historical partnership, strategic interests and close military ties.

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have a long-standing defense relationship. Pakistani troops first went to Saudi Arabia in the 1960s to protect the security of Mecca and Medina. The relationship has deepened since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. Saudi Arabia is believed to have financed Pakistan’s nuclear program, leading to speculation for years that Riyadh could come under Islamabad’s nuclear umbrella if necessary.

Analysts say the timing of the agreement is significant. Israel is currently engaged in multi-front wars in Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. And it has challenged the region’s security equation for the first time by directly attacking Qatar in the Gulf.

The Saudi-Pakistan defense deal is therefore clearly a response to Israel and an effective attempt by Riyadh to establish an alternative security system to the conventional US security guarantees.

The US has not yet officially commented on the deal. On the other hand, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs has said that it will examine the impact of the deal on “national security and regional and international stability.” While India is a close economic partner of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities may create new concerns for them.

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Meanwhile, Iran sent Tehran’s top political figure Ali Larijani to Saudi Arabia ahead of the deal. Although the ice in Riyadh-Tehran relations melted in 2023 with China-related mediation, Iran is believed to be closely monitoring this new defense alliance.

Saudi Arabia has long sought US assistance for its own civilian nuclear program, as part of which it has sought permission to enrich uranium. Although Saudi Arabia is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and does not conduct its own weapons program, the crown prince has warned that if Iran develops nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia will also move in that direction.

The recent agreement has therefore given rise to a new strategic reality in the Gulf. On the one hand, it is a reflection of Saudi Arabia's dependence on Pakistan's military power, and on the other hand, it is a strong message to Israel and the United States that Riyadh is ready to build a new security zone if necessary.

If Saudi Arabia moves under Pakistan's nuclear umbrella, it will change not only Iran but the entire Gulf security system. This will enter a new chapter in the military balance in the Middle East. At the same time, this all-out closeness between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia has also created concerns in India. If this new equation of nuclear weapons involves Riyadh, Pakistan will emerge as a powerful influence in the security of South Asia and the Middle East.

This new agreement is a hidden threat to Tehran. If Saudi Arabia ensures nuclear defense, the arms race in the entire region will increase.

At the same time, this security agreement is not very comfortable for Washington. Saudi Arabia has always relied on US security. If it now leans towards Pakistan, then US influence in Middle East diplomacy will clearly decrease.

At the moment, this is a huge diplomatic success for Pakistan. The long-standing military and religious relationship with Riyadh has now reached the highest strategic security level. However, Pakistan also has increased responsibility. Because as a result, the surveillance of world powers, mainly the US, will now fall more on Pakistan. Which may go to the level of economic sanctions.