Election debacle, Netanyahu’s pressure - what will Trump do now?

The unprecedented defeat of the Republican Party in the recent US midterm elections and a new storm has begun in Washington politics over Middle East policy. Unable to cope with the shock of the election defeat, US President Donald Trump held an emergency meeting with top military officials at the Pentagon last night. The influential US media outlet Axios published a report titled 'Trump meets with national security team; decision on Iran war coming soon'.

Now the question is, what decision is Trump actually going to make? Will he try to establish himself as the "victor" by launching a new military attack on Iran after his election defeat, or will he have to struggle to maintain his political existence?

Nobel Prize-winning journalist and geopolitical analyst Aliza Magnair recently made a significant comment at the 'Dialogue Works' event. In her words, 'Trump has no other choice.'

The geopolitical calculation behind Magnier's statement is quite clear. According to his analysis, if Trump does not attack Iran now, it will be difficult for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to remain in power. According to recent reports in the Israeli media, the country's Arab parties, although they support Gadi Eisenkot's coalition, will not directly join the government. This means that Eisenkot can take the initiative to form an alternative government if he wants, which could make Netanyahu's political future even more uncertain.

However, Gideon Levy, a veteran journalist and left-wing writer for the Israeli daily Haaretz, said, "Don't trust any of these parties. They're all the same."

As a geopolitics teacher and Asian studies researcher, I find this observation by Gideon Levy very significant. I have been observing him closely for the past decade. Even in an extremist state like Israel, people like Gideon Levy still continue to fight against the prevailing political currents by taking a stand against the prevailing political currents. However, despite the distrust of political parties, the current equation says that they may eventually form an alliance. And if that happens, Netanyahu's political future will be in a major crisis.

Recently, American geopolitical analyst Anthony, who appeared at a program hosted by Norwegian professor Glenn Dysen, commented that Netanyahu will use all his power to persuade Trump at any cost in the next two weeks.

The equation of reality also points in that direction. If Netanyahu fails to convince Trump, Trump may be able to survive the legal battle; but Netanyahu may face prison. On the other hand, Trump's own political situation is also in deep crisis. After losing power in Congress, the risk of impeachment and losing the presidency may increase.

The American media outlet CNN recently published an analytical article. It highlighted the positions of the potential candidates of the Republican Party in the 2028 presidential election, including JD Vance and Marco Rubio. It is noteworthy that after the defeat in the election, many of the party's top leaders are maintaining distance from Trump and publicly criticizing him. Such a scene has not been seen much in the last two decades of American politics.

After the election debacle, Trump's Vice President J.D. Vance published a three-page long analysis on social media. The gist of his statement was, "We lost because of the Iran war. To avoid such defeats in the future, the solution must start with Iran."

Vance's statement clearly indicates that the Iran war needs to be stopped now and that major changes need to be made to the US's unilateral foreign policy towards Israel.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has made his position clear at the same time, saying that the modest success in Florida is due to his leadership, not Trump's popularity.Now the big question is, will Trump be able to protect himself from the pressure of the Israeli lobby?

Chinese geopolitical analyst Victor Gao has repeatedly warned that Mossad may have secret documents or sensitive video footage that, if released, could put Trump in even greater trouble in the Epstein Files controversy. His statement raises the question of whether Trump will launch another provocative military operation in Iran under political pressure from Netanyahu.

But Trump faces a bigger political challenge. If Democrats take control of the House and Senate on January 3, the Epstein Files controversy could resurface, as well as the impeachment process against Trump.

According to the US Constitution, a president can be impeached by a simple majority vote in the House of Representatives. However, removal from office requires the support of two-thirds of the members present in the Senate. This would require 67 votes in the 100-member Senate. If Democrats win 56 seats, then the support of 11 more Republican senators would be needed to remove Trump. Considering the political future of their party, some Republican senators may then take a stand against Trump.

Instead of accepting responsibility, Trump is now looking for scapegoats. Sometimes he blames Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, sometimes he blames Admiral Cooper. Trump even claims, 'I wasn't in the vote, if I had been, I would have won!'

Yet just two days before the election, he loudly said, 'Everyone will vote thinking that I'm on the ballot too.' The American people probably took that into account and rejected the Republicans in the election.

Eight months ago, when efforts were made to start a new war in the Middle East, I said that Trump would be trapped in Iran. The United States has nothing to gain from Iran; on the contrary, it risks losing more.

The most realistic path for Trump now is to acknowledge the reality of Iran and disengage from it. The internal fragility of the US empire is increasingly being exposed to the world today.

Recently, Democratic Senator Chris Murphy wanted to visit US military bases in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. But the Trump administration and the Pentagon did not allow him. It has been alleged that this decision was made to hide the extent of the damage to those bases. However, if the Democrats take control of Congress, it will no longer be possible to keep this information secret.

At the end of the day, Democrats and Republicans are two sides of the same imperialist coin. Joe Biden came to power on the promise of human rights, while under his administration Israel has been supported and militarily assisted in one of the worst massacres of this century in Gaza. On the other hand, Trump came to power promising to 'not start another war' and has further destabilized the Middle East under the influence of the pro-Israel lobby. Both are paying the political price for their policies.

Accusations are also growing that the US political elite has pushed its own future into uncertainty by being trapped in the economic influence game of Israeli tycoons and influential lobby groups.

On the other hand, Iran is trying to maintain its position in technology, science and military capabilities despite long-standing US sanctions and military pressure. Far from overthrowing the country's government, this unequal conflict could ultimately put Trump and Netanyahu in a crisis for their own political existence.

Author:  AKM Rezaul Karim,