Trump’s new economic war, will Iran surrender this time?

US President Donald Trump has once again adopted a new strategy against Iran. This time, instead of a military attack, he has planned to force Iran to surrender by pressuring the country's economy. However, questions have arisen about how long Trump will stick to this strategy if political and economic pressure increases.

In a post on the social media Truth Social on Wednesday (August 19), Trump promised to launch the 'strongest economic campaign against any country' against Iran.

After military strikes to force Iran to surrender failed and offers of compromise to return to nuclear talks failed, Trump's new plan is being seen as a face-saving tactic. In the past few months, US policy on the Iran issue has seen a series of changes and strategic shifts.

Trump has stopped all negotiations with Iran. According to a CNN report, the Trump administration has told political allies that he is now moving towards long-term economic pressure. He believes that this pressure will cripple Iran’s economy and force the country’s government to surrender.

On Wednesday, Trump said that things are going very well right now. Although he had earlier declared victory after a few days of fighting, the conflict is now in its sixth month.

Later, in another social media post, Trump also warned of action against countries that have provided economic assistance to Iran. He said that countries that provide any kind of assistance to Iran, banks, businesses, airports or government agencies, must stop doing so. He called for an end to Iran’s economic activities through oil smuggling, money transfers, currency exchange institutions, ship registrations and shell companies.

However, analysts are skeptical that Iran will bow to pressure so easily. Iran has survived decades of harsh international sanctions.

Daniel Sitrinovich, a longtime Israeli military intelligence officer, believes that economic pressure could do significant damage to Iran, but it is unlikely to change the country's strategy. According to him, even if Iran's economic situation is difficult, there is no sign that the country's leadership will change its calculations just because of pressure.

What does Trump need to change?

It may take months, even years, to destroy Iran's economy. But the kind of patience needed to implement a long-term strategy could be a major challenge for Trump. Iran may also assume that Trump will back off from economic pressure before the plan comes to fruition.

In addition, an effective economic blockade also requires major changes in the diplomatic field. The White House is relying heavily on military force to block Iran's ships and ports. But to effectively isolate Iran, cooperation from countries in the Gulf region, Europe and Asia is needed.

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There are, of course, some opportunities to create tougher economic pressure on Iran. Hudson Institute senior fellow Ludovic Hood has suggested increasing regional and international pressure to reduce the income of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He also said that pressure should be increased on Iran's regional allies and affiliates.

Sanctions may also be imposed on Chinese banks. These banks are accused of being involved in illegal oil sales transactions for Iran. However, Trump has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping for a state visit in September. As a result, there are questions about how eager he will be to create new tensions with China before that visit.

What plan will Trump stick to in the end

Even if Trump wants to continue the economic war, Iran has the opportunity to retaliate. The US midterm elections are just over two months away. Analysts believe that Iran can use this political time to increase pressure on Trump.

If Iran launches drone or missile attacks to further disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, energy and commodity prices could rise. This will increase economic pressure on US voters and may intensify discontent with the war.

If Trump retaliates, the crisis will worsen, and if he remains silent, he may appear weak. As a result, whether it is a military war or an economic war, there are political risks for Trump in both cases.

Democrats are also seeing an opportunity to exploit the issue politically. Democratic Congressman James Walkinshaw said that he is not interested in an economic war in which the American people have to pay the price of the conflict with Iran through higher prices for energy and daily necessities.

Despite Trump's latest warning, there is still no clear solution to the Iran crisis. In the end, the big question is - will the American people's ability to withstand the economic and political damage of the war end before the Iranian government?

Source: CNN