Trump in Iran’s ’trap’ to attack, even if he retreats, he will face a crushing defeat

After failing to defeat Iran with air and naval forces, US President Donald Trump will probably deploy ground forces this time. This is what Robert Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago and author of the 'Escalation Trap' substack, thinks.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, Robert Pape said that President Trump may not launch a ground operation in the next few days, or even weeks. However, he has already seen the limitations of air strikes and is being informed about this every day.

He has also seen the limitations of the navy. Therefore, he now has only one force left, and that is the ground force.

According to this political scientist, a US ground operation against Iran may also ultimately fail. However, Trump is now left with no choice but to escalate the conflict.

Calling this situation an 'escalation trap', Pep said, "This is the trap - either he has to go that way (ground operation) or he has to admit defeat. And if Trump admits defeat, Iran will become the fourth center of world power. This will be a huge defeat for President Trump. As a result, his image in history will be completely tarnished.

Incidentally, this armed conflict that began between the United States, Israel and Iran on February 28 has completely changed the geopolitics of the Middle East. This joint military operation by the United States and Israel, named Operation Epic Fury, was launched primarily with the aim of destroying Iran's nuclear program and military capabilities.

In this first phase of the attack, several top military and government officials, including Iran's Supreme Leader for nearly four decades, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were killed. However, during the attack, a missile struck a girls' school next to a naval base near Bandar Abbas, killing about 170 innocent people, sparking widespread controversy around the world.

After Khamenei's death, the Iranian government quickly appointed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader. Iran then launched a devastating counterattack. Tehran launched more than 650 ballistic missiles and thousands of drones at US embassies, military installations and Israel across the Middle East. The retaliatory attacks killed thousands of people and displaced millions in Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Gulf countries. The conflict also sparked a new war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The biggest blow to the global economy was the Iranian attack on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's main oil shipping routes, which led to an energy crisis in various Asian countries. In response, US President Donald Trump announced a new, tougher naval blockade on Iran.

After 40 days of fighting, a ceasefire took effect on April 8, and talks between the two sides on a memorandum of understanding (MOU) began in June. But diplomatic efforts collapsed over differences over security and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Now, a new military conflict has erupted between the two sides. Analysts believe that President Trump is now considering extreme options such as deploying ground forces, as he has not been able to completely defeat Iran with air and naval forces.