Putin will fight on and could take more of Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to keep fighting in Ukraine until the West engages with his terms for peace, and may even try to seize more territory if Russian forces keep advancing, according to three sources close to the Kremlin.

Despite Donald Trump’s threats of more sanctions and promises of weapons to Ukraine — including Patriot missile systems — sources say Putin remains unfazed. He believes Russia’s economy and military are strong enough to handle further pressure from the West.

“Putin feels no one, including the U.S., has seriously engaged with him on peace talks,” said one source.
“He’ll continue the war until he gets what he wants.”

Putin’s Conditions for Peace:

• NATO must stop expanding eastward
• Ukraine must remain neutral and limit its military
• Protection for Russian speakers
• Recognition of Russian control over occupied territories (including Crimea and large parts of eastern Ukraine)
• Possibly: international security guarantees for Ukraine

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has rejected giving up land or giving up on NATO membership.

Russia’s Military Gains and Strategy

• Russia currently controls nearly 20% of Ukraine, including Crimea, all of Luhansk, most of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, and parts of Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk.
• In the last 3 months, Russia has gained over 1,400 sq km of territory.
• Kremlin insiders say Putin’s ambition could grow if Ukraine’s resistance weakens.
• If Ukraine collapses, Russia may push further into Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk.

“Appetite comes with eating,” said one source, warning that without resistance, Putin will take more land.

Trump’s Role and Putin’s Calculus
Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has:

• Spoken with Putin at least six times
• Called the war a proxy conflict between the U.S. and Russia
• Pulled back U.S. support for Ukraine joining NATO
• Suggested the U.S. could recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea
• Proposed a ceasefire that Putin has not yet accepted, despite Kyiv’s support

Putin is wary of irritating Trump but doesn’t feel pressured by him.

“Trump is unpredictable,” said one source. “Putin is maneuvering carefully, but his priority is Russia’s interests.”

Russia’s Resilient Economy

• Despite Western sanctions and tariffs, Russia’s economy grew 4.3% in 2024 and is expected to grow 2.5% in 2025.
• U.S. plans to impose 100% tariffs on Russian goods and penalize China and India for buying Russian oil.
• Kremlin insiders say these measures won’t stop Russia from selling its oil elsewhere.

What’s Next?
Sources say there is a high risk of escalation in the coming months.

Putin is determined, and the war will continue unless the West changes its approach or Ukraine collapses militarily.

“Putin won’t be forced to the table. He’ll come when he sees his conditions are met — or when victory is within reach,” one source concluded.