Trump’s future is uncertain, but ’overwhelming Trumpism’ around the world

While US President Donald Trump is under political pressure at home, his conservative populist nationalism is gaining influence around the world. The rise of right-wing and nationalist political forces in countries from Europe to Latin America is highlighting that trend.

The latest example of this trend is the stunning first-round victory of Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of Trump-friendly former President Jair Bolsonaro, in Brazil's presidential election, CNN reported. His rise in Sunday's vote further bolstered Trump's efforts to expand his political influence in the Western Hemisphere.

The report also said that a similar picture is emerging in Europe. Right-wing populist forces are gaining popularity in countries including Germany and France due to the failure to reduce the cost of living, economic pressures and the failure to implement promised changes.

In Germany, the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) is becoming a major political force at the national level. In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen is leading in opinion polls ahead of next year's presidential election.

These parties are not directly modeled after Trump. Many of the parties emerged before Trump's "Make America Great Again" movement. However, Trump's rise to power and long-term political influence have inspired them. The Trump administration is also openly supporting various nationalist political forces in Europe.

Bolsonaro's surprise in Brazil

Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close Trump ally. Bolsonaro is in prison after being convicted of conspiring to overthrow current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after the 2022 election.

Lula now has just three weeks to turn the tide in a second round of elections. If he fails to win, Latin America's most populous democracy could tilt further to the right.

Trump's influence in Brazil's elections is also clear. US Senators Jeanne Shaheen, Tim Kaine and Peter Welch wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio last month, accusing the Trump administration of interfering in Brazil's democratic process through tariffs and economic sanctions.

Meanwhile, Trump also questioned US democracy after Sunday's election. He criticized the US electoral system, citing the fact that the results were released on the same day after 125 million people voted in Brazil.

Right-wing forces are also rising in other Latin American countries. In Colombia, right-wing leader Abelardo de la Esperilla won the presidential election this year. In Costa Rica, a conservative government close to Trump has come to power after the victory of populist leader Laura Fernández Delgado. Conservative governments are also in power in El Salvador, Chile and Honduras.

Argentine President Javier Tebas is known as a close political ally of Trump. Trump offered Argentina a $20 billion currency swap deal, conditional on voting for Tebas's party in the country's legislative elections.

Wave of right-wing extremism in Europe too

The report says that the rise of Marine Le Pen in France could bring about major changes in European politics next year. Despite losing three presidential elections, she is in a stronger position this time than before.

In France's two-round electoral system, centrist parties have in the past united to block Le Pen. But the situation may be different this time, as the popularity of center-right and center-left political parties has declined.

Le Pen has tried to make her National Rally party more centrist than before, but has maintained her nationalist, anti-immigration, protectionist economic policies and opposition to the European Union. If elected, she could become the most right-wing president in modern French history.

Europe's centrist leaders are more concerned about Germany's AfD. The rise of the far-right in Germany is a particularly sensitive issue given its history of Nazism after World War II.

The AfD is considered more right-wing than Le Pen's party and Trump's "Maga" movement. It has been accused of denying history, anti-Semitism and ethnic nationalism. Yet it is now the second-largest single party in the German parliament.

Last year, US Vice President JD Vance stirred controversy in Europe by meeting with AfD leader Alice Weidel in Munich. Trump also endorsed the party after its big victory in the state of Saxony-Anhalt last month.

But not all of Trump's political allies have been successful. Hungary's longtime right-wing leader Viktor Orban lost power this year despite Trump's support. Trump's relationship with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has also cooled over the Iran war and various political disagreements.

The rise of counter-populism

A political counter-movement is also emerging against Trump-style populism. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has emerged as an informal leader of Western democracies by taking a stand against Trump's demand to make Canada the 51st state of the United States.

Carney said that at a time when populism and ethnic nationalism are on the rise in the world, Canada can show that diversity is not a weakness, but a strength.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham is also trying to address the social and economic underpinnings of right-wing populism. In a speech to the Labour Party conference, he blamed policies such as deregulation, privatisation and industrialisation.

However, if Burnham fails, Trump's close political ally and Reform Party leader Nigel Farage could become even more powerful.

There are also signs of a rise in left-wing populism against Trumpism in the United States. The success of democratic socialists in the primary votes in various midterm elections has highlighted that trend.

Becoming a permanent political reality?

Trump has long portrayed himself as the leader of a global populist movement, even pointing to Britain's vote to leave the European Union in 2016 as a harbinger of his political rise.

But right-wing populism around the world is no longer dependent on Trump alone. Local political, economic, and social crises in various countries have created their own foundations for the movement.

As a result, even if Trump's political popularity declines, there is no sign that his style of nationalist politics will easily disappear. On the contrary, in politics in various countries, right-wing populism, as well as left-wing and centrist counter-movements against it, are strengthening.